Oscars 2018 (results)

It’s now time to admit to my successes and failures in prediction.

This was a tough year to predict, which made the ceremony all that more exciting even if it wasn’t the best for comedy. And lest you think I’m not being honest, here are the links to my nominations and final call to help keep me honest.

I did about 87% on the nominations for this year.

For the results:
I did 100% on the majors (8 out of 8).
I did 30% on the minors (3 out of 9; however, I didn’t see most of those. If I leave out the shorts it was a slightly better 60% (3 out of 5))
I did 75% on the technical (6 out of 8)

Overall that was 68% (17 out of 25)
Or without the shorts: %80 (17 out of 21)

(or what we all care about)

Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

My Prediction: Frances McDormand
Winner: Frances McDormand

Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

My Prediction: Gary Oldman 
Winner:  Gary Oldman 

Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

My Prediction: Allison Janney
Winner: Allison Janney

Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

My Prediction: Sam Rockwell
Winner: Sam Rockwell

Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water)

My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
Winner: Guillermo del Toro

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Prediction: The Shape of Water
Winner: The Shape of Water

Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent

My Prediction: Coco
Winner: Coco

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body And Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)

My Prediction:  A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Winner:  A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

(or what the rest of us care about)

Documentary Feature
Faces, Places
Last Man In Aleppo
Strong Island

My Prediction: Icarus
Winner: Icarus  

Documentary Short Subject
Edith and Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

My Prediction: Heroin(e)  
Winner: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 

Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

My Prediction: Negative Space
Winner: Dear Basketball

Live Action Short Film
Dekalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
Silent Child
Watu Wote (All Of Us)

My Prediction: Dekalb Elementary  
Winner: Silent Child

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name” James Ivory
The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

My Prediction: Call Me By Your Name
Winner: Call Me By Your Name

Original Screenplay
The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out,” Jordan Peele
Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

My Prediction: Shape of Water
Winner: Get Out
I’ll note that I did call this upset a good possibility.

Original Song
“Mighty River” (Mudbound), Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name), Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” (Coco), Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” (Marshall), Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman), Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

My Prediction: This is Me
Winner:  Remember Me
This was probably my only real disappointment for the evening. I just don’t think this song was worthy of the win.

Original Score
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Prediction: Shape of Water
Winner:  Shape of Water

(or what we should all care about)

Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Bruno Delbonnel (Darkest Hour)
Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk)
Rachel Morrison (Mudbound)
Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)

My Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Winner: Blade Runner 2049

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
The Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

My Prediction: Phantom Thread 
Winner: Phantom Thread 

Makeup and Hairstyling
The Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul

My Prediction: The Darkest Hour
Winner: The Darkest Hour

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
The Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water

My Prediction: Shape of Water
Winner: Shape of Water

Film Editing
Baby Driver
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Prediction: Dunkirk
Winner: Dunkirk

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Prediction: Dunkirk
Winner: Dunkirk

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Prediction: Baby Driver
Winner: Dunkirk
Another I thought likely, but had hoped would go a different way, though in this case it was a tough field.

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

My Prediction: War of the Planet of the Apes
Winner: Blade Runner 2049
This was a happy surprise to me as Blade Runner was so overlooked this year. A strong option, but still think Apes did more practical work, which should have give it the win. But I’m not complaining.

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